![]() ![]() He’s also an early retiree who FIREd a couple of years ago at age 44.īut before that, he taught economics at Emory University. My guest today is Karsten Jeske, who also goes by the nickname “Big ERN.” Karsten has a PhD in economics and is a chartered financial analyst. ![]() I hope you enjoy the conversation as much as I did. Our conversation was so substantive that I ended up deciding to break this up into two episodes: part one today, which covers a lot of the theory and underpinnings behind these two concepts, and part two next week, where we cover mitigation strategies for reducing our exposure to sequence of returns risk. Schedule a private 1:1 consultation with meįor today’s episode, I invited an economist to come talk to us about safe withdrawal rates and sequence of returns risk in retirement.Asset allocation: Is rental real estate a safer type of “yield shield”? (HYW070).Asset allocation: Does the “yield shield” really protect against sequence of returns risk? (HYW069).Asset allocation: How to use a bond tent to reduce sequence of returns risk (HYW068).Early Retirement Now Safe Withdrawal Rate Series.If you liked this episode, would you please leave a quick review on Apple Podcasts? It’d mean the world to me and your review also helps others find my podcast, too! Links mentioned in this episode: I need your help, please leave a listener review □ If you liked this episode, be sure to subscribe so you don’t miss any upcoming episodes! Have you analyzed your safe withdrawal rate? Do you think it is more or less than 4%? 3%? Let me know by leaving a comment when you’re done.ĭon’t miss an episode, hit that subscribe button… Why sequence of returns risk is front-loaded for early retirees but back-loaded for wage earners.How Social Security factors into your safe withdrawal analysis.Why the business cycle in the year you retire is crucial to your safe withdrawal analysis, plus how to use the Shiller CAPE ratio to estimate your safe withdrawal rate.Why sequence of returns risk and safe withdrawals rates are inextricably linked.The importance of analyzing the conditional probability of failure based on the actual year you retire.The fatal flaw of the “4% rule” and why you might easily run out of money in retirement if you follow it blindly.This is the most important financial planning concept early retirees must grasp to stay retired and guarantee they never have to go back to a j-o-b. So this week, I invited Karsten Jeske, PhD – a former professor, Fed economist, quantitative finance researcher, and early retiree – to the podcast to share insight on how to estimate your safe withdrawal rate in retirement. When it comes to early retirement the most important (and difficult) thing you have to grasp is your safe withdrawal rate.įIRE bloggers rave about “the shockingly simple math behind early retirement,” but they almost never talk about the shockingly un-simple math behind safe withdrawal rates. ![]()
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